This page is part of an in-progress commentary by Roger
Frye
on High Altitude
Thinking: The International Informatics Summit.
Will talk more generally about the future than the title. Same title as his first talk at MIT. Predicting results of the microprocessor. Predicted number would exceed number of people. Everyone laughed. There are now microprocessors in the doors of the hotel where he gave that talk.
Same type of chart he used in his first talk. Chart of bandwidth of internet. Nice straight line on a log plot. Argues that this is a transition point. Changing our society, who we are, where we are. In mid 90s, explained this graph to CEO of (unamed, but had to be ATT). Answer. I don't know what that is, but we will just buy it if it grows like that. Now he carries around a pocket web browser. Jokes that it may also make telephone calls, but haven't figured that out yet.
Unprecedented in technology, but happens in biology. Shows world human population. World bank projection is that it will level off around 2030, and he agrees. Something very special about the time that we live in.
Talk will proceed in 3 parts. Culture, political. Computers. Bring together.
World culture vs globalism. Spent childhood overseas. Dad studied hepatitis. Small villages in the Congo. No autos. Children had not seen whites. No radio, TV. Not part of same culture. Children didn't understand money. 1964. Fast forward to today. Telephone service. Contradict general by saying that most villages do have telephone access. Well maybe not contradicting because he is talking about now instead of an hour ago. Imported diseases like AIDS. Now tribal wars fought with submchine guns instead of machetes.
2 dimensions. Used to be that where you were born determined your culture. Now if shop in a village in France, then except for tourist trinkets, all shared. World culture is threatening to people who see it as choosing their local culture. So they label it as American culture. But elements are not American. Believes that people at the core are very similar. Nothing about French or Japanese that selects their food or poetry except their history. People should not have to live as Pilgrims if born in Massachusets.
2nd dimension = rich vs poor. Fundamentally unfair since world will not support everyone being as rich as Americans.
Technology is one of the few bright points that lets you change your culture. Will see how places are governed will change. Used to be that you would draw a line around your area and distinguish inside and out. Made sense in a space dominated world. But fiber optics makes it less sense to define those lines.
Used to be that government delivered mail, censored information. My trade laws are mostly set by world. Product safety. Deconstructing those elements of government. How much do we depend on our own government for our defense? Heading to a world where we all have acess to the same information.
Friend who is building a house went to internet and established a relationship with someone in India for the stone. Editors for the Encyclopaedia Britannica in India. System will not be boring and uniform Will have MacDonalds, but also sushi. Rock and rol but also ragas.
PART 2 -- COMPUTERS
Reinventing reality through computers. 1980s visited Silicon Graphics. The building looked as though it had been rendered without enough polygons. Used to be able to see the french curve on drafting table that drew line. Each time a new CAD tool, could see the result in new products. Manufacturing is almost a process of rendering. The thing in the computer is more real, and the printout is just an approximate rendering. This chair is really sitting inside the designer's computer.
Children have spent more time in the electronic reality. Took children to a live play. After 1st act and curtain came down, son thought they were going to the next level.
Showing covers of scientific journals: Science shows model of transport membranes. Nature shows model of quanntum dots. Science shows model of a synapse connection works. Science model RNA engine. Science picture of large scale structure of the universe. Fundamentally unseeable. Passing through the intermediary of a computer. But he says that science is the most real of real.
What is happening in biotechnology. Explosion of biological techniques. Extending our body with glasses or artificial heart. Will be implanting ourselves with the very building blocks of life. Minds and bodies more dependent. Harder to distinguish the boundary between ourselves and our technology. That is the auto-catalysis.
PART 3 -- Bringing it together.
Bill Joy says happening so fast that should stop. Of course, can't. Unfair for us to call a halt because of our wealth and leave the rest of the world stuck. Should even out, but better to bring more to the table. Only happy ending. Not a panacea. Only rabbit to pull out of the hat. Only morally justifiable position.
Story. Personal project of Danny's. Thinks will look much clearer 10000 years from now. Step back and take the 10K look. Picture of a mountain in Nevada purchased by Long Now, surrounded by National Parks. Far away from Las Vegas, etc. Will be the home for the long now clock that will last 10k years. Picture of a tree that is 6000 years old there. Shows mechanical prototype. Synchronized by sunlight if sun out that day.
The dial of the clock that rotates as the earth's axis wobbles. What will now look like from that perspective. Hopes that we will go through our current transition, and that we will do it well.
Zuni creation story. Humans were soft and formless underground, which grew colder. Heros urged by spider woman to buld a ladder and climb up to next cave. Several similar phases. Break through and dazzled by the sun and became real people. Believes that we are there now.
Question. ancient plants for visioning purposes? Answer don't know.
Question destroying society with technology. Answer yes important that someone will be able to read the clock. Incuded a manual. Has a rosetta stone. Has 1000 languages on it on a plate of nickel. First time so many languages together. Posted on internet. Others have added their grandmother's language. Hopes there is continuity.
Question Ken Wilbur work on integral model of tech and culture. Answer Dont know.
Question by me about Gnutella and blad servers vs the parallel computers he invented. Answer the software. Makes alot of sense to put in one room. But SETI @home for other problems. Both will coexist depending on the amount of communications.
Question about S curve applied to world population. Answer Some nondepressing scenarios. Would be good if world population where people are more rather than more people.
Question did Zuni ladders collapse? Answer system is more resilient than they think it is, but can fail. Stock market crashes and reorganizes. Hijacking on 9/11: by the 4th plane, the system had adapted. There will be some backsliding and success in others. Biggest potential we had was nuclear war with soviet union. We will certainly have a nuclear explosion, but not a full scale attack setting civilization back. Optimistic.
Question government within a circle vs religious government. Answer not predicting that governments will go away, e.g. water rights, just less all encompassing. Religions also. Religions have been around longer than governments. Will end the coupling between religion and government.
Question extremist responses. will people reach limits of what they can tolerate? Answer yes, there will be a lot of energy expended. We are a threat to their cultures, but will not wipe out components. The package will be wiped out. Clearly sees the outcome.
END