This page is part of an in-progress commentary by Roger
Frye
on High Altitude
Thinking: The International Informatics Summit.
Can understnd French, but having trouble understanding us speaking English. Lack of precision directed terminology.
Heard "drawing conclusions." Yes, that is what he wants. Critic vs cynic
Measurements of effectiveness -- this is really hard. Bottom line measure is decision. How ong did it take to reach the decision. Everybody is an expert on the future. Lots of people can talk about the complexities of their life.
From NM. Moved to Alaska. Our mud flats when the tide goes out are bigger than Texas. But when the ice melts...
50% of world population never made a phone call. Going against unsophisticated systems that are very complex.
Showing petri dish. Shows battle field. colors represent theatres. No deep, far, rear. Topology changing. His expertise in blowing things up does not win wars -- it is the anti-money laundering we just heard about.
Want war to be a complex adaptive system, but having trouble writing that up. Need business rules.
Slide comparing traditional to proposed warfighting culture. From mechanistic, linear, reductionist, etc. to complex, non-linear, systemic, distributed, non-hierarchal, non.contiguous, unpredictable, effects based, opportunistic, all elements of power, intuitive, synergized, information, dislocation.
Book called Fifth Dimension by ?Sadie?
He has been sanctioned to fail in effort to define military for 2020.
Joke about Minnesota land of 10000 lakes compared to Alaska, not bothering to count and brag about them.
Slide: new military concepts and complexity. In Kosovo, Milosovich used what we were looking for to fool us. Bombing houses, so he could place his tanks in them.
At present complexity science is unable to predict output from input. He needs cause and effect. Want to cause a toothache in #27 molar. Sledgehammer will do that but with some unintended effect. An acupuncturist view. Uses some pins in the heal and chest.
A major need. Us= dime= diplomacy, intelligence, military, economics. Model in between. Them = political, military, economic, solutial , i, i. Again he needs input and output. What PMESII effect will result froma DIME action. What inside black box. He plays a sim city like agent based game that learns when you go offline. Has been asked to leave several times, but now they realize there is something to this.
Conclusions: we recognise the complexity implicatiosn of our work. We are changing our culture and thinking. finding ways to fully engage all elements of national power. seeking to be more agile and adaptable. Looking to bring new toos to bear.
We look to be informed by the complexity science community. Consider the national security applications of your work.
Mentioned having to withdraw troops to use them in Afghanistan. Ancient problem still.
They look to Walmart. Why are they having trouble predicting their supply chain. Solve this and can solve World trade center.
Slide of a child -- his boss and customer. What are you doing for the warrior of 2020.
Not reactive, want proactive. That is adaptive. They now fund officers going back for their masters to help develop war fighting concepts of the future.
Over by 9 minutes. I owe you 900 push ups.
Question about genera van Riker who objected to war simulation fakes. Was he the acupuncturist. Answer he was free thinking but not free acting. Cash would not let him go out of personal He did succeed in sinking 19 ships with swarming techniques. It was not winning and losing with Cash. Why was the commander surprised that their was a pre-emptive strike. Not winning or losing. He has been recipient of all kinds of opportunities to speak because of that National Inquirer article.
END