This page is part of an in-progress commentary by Roger
Frye
on High Altitude
Thinking: The International Informatics Summit.
Strong historical involvement in complexity at LANL. Trans-disciplinary approaches. Integration of theory, modeling, simulation/computation, experimentation .Scaling
Predicting complex system behavior: a daunting challenge. Show early 50s movie. Jimmy Stewart arguing for his simulation about nuclear fission. This plane will fall apart. Tail will fall off. You have to land.
Relevance to National Security. Science-based predictive tools: Stockpile stewardship, threat reduction -- homeland security, funcdamental science. How do our job without a nuclear test? What degree of confidence?
We are engaged in a scientific revolution. Example of starting with Stoke's equation (theory) in a simulation. Show simulation of shockwave with boundary condition. How do you validate? Two experiments. One board has a notch in it. Watch explosion if aluminum or copper. Validate with proton microscope to compare movies.
Validation of performance of aging systems. Symmetry-breaking requires large-scale simulations (used to use symmetry for closed formulas). Provide opportunity to pursue understanding of other complex simulations.
Show simulation of kilometer wide asteroid coming through atmosphere at 45 degree angle to hit ocean. Result in spike 20 kilometers high collapses to drive tsunmi at 170 kilometers/sec. Uses same type of simulation used in stockpile. Gave insight into material strength problem.
Aluminum is a challenging material to cast. Show bismuth flowing into a mold. Surprising turbulence.
Threat reduction -- homeland security: EpiSims. Predicting complex epidemic behavior. Based on the TRANSIMS simulation of automobiles..Movie of simulation of attack in Porland Oregon. Dramatic music. Spread based on wear people live. Decisions on quarantine, vaccines. Not yet modeling riots.
GENIE. Searching complex images for complex information. Use to model 9/12. Relocated a satelite over world trade center, also airplanes with other sensors. Where was plume going? Can see the shadow of the plume as well as the plume. Plume did not contain the carcinogenic materials the Port Authority feared.
Fundamental science. simulating protein behavior. Thermodynamic motion of folding a helical protein. Staphylococcus aurea. 45 amino aacids, 5107 water molecules (thermal bath). 16000 atoms. cubic box 54 angstroms on side.
Basic science provides the foundation for our national security mission. Ocen modeling, materials, genetics, quantum informationn technology (encryption through computing). Informtics and complexity science plays a critical role in our research.
Question. Meyer observes informatic to generate data, to capture information and ...? What balance? Answer: in fundamental science area, most unpredictable, but necessary to look there. Using EpiSims to ask where to put biological sensors and how to plan first response.
Question: any objectiv measure of how confident we are about nukes. If test 1000 times, get more confidence. But with limited and heterogenous tests, must use Bayesian and other techniques, and all we can do is put limits on our certainty. We are not as high as it should be.
Question: Kennedy space flight center. Answer: Use this tool to find features, e.g. the beach. Couldn't show other things they were searching for.
Question: cascading effects between systems. Answer: have proposed NISAC with Sandia to look at electricity, transportation, etc. What is the impact of trying to protect one piece on the other?
Question: how do other countries monitor their stockpile? Answer: Use simple systems tried in other countries.
Question: portland pathogens. trace back from people showing up in emergency rooms to find the likely source. Answer. No, we talked about how you would do that. Not just the what-if questions, but how to use as a forensic tool. Not yet, but will.
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