This page is part of an in-progress commentary by Roger
Frye
on High Altitude
Thinking: The International Informatics Summit.
Story about Drucker calling Vienna, city of extinct volcanos. This talk is revenge on his assertion that iinformation technology going nowhere? History is 1 damn thing after another. Same with technology.
Shumpeter said 3 things. Vowed greatest economist, horseman, lover. Failed in 1 of them -- wasn't greatest horseman. (Interchanges with Stuart Kauffman in audience.)
Technology clusters: Industrial Revolution, Railway revolution 1829-1870, Steel and electricity in Germany and U.S. 1880-1920, mass production 1910-1960, information revolution 1970-? Shumpeter said should last 60 years and go through phases that could be timed to the month.
Look up book by Carlotta Perez. Says 3 (or 4?) phases. Technological turbulence. Golden age where it works. Maturity where it becomes an agent of growth. Decline.
Between phases are crashes. Example railroads. 1829 contest to haul a train of carriages. Turbulence in 1830s. Predicting new economy. 10 days by ox cart vs few hours. Poems about railways. Queen Victoria trip in 1840. Great entrepreneurs. George Hudson creating startup companies. Need to know him to get in even if Duke of Wellington. Steam king. 1847 crash. Blame starts. Carlyle wanted to see Hudson on a gibbet as admonitory pendulum.
Martha Stewart scandal means that we are in the final phase of blame because she was unconnected.
Big buildout of railway track in succeeding years. Also increase in usage of track.
Searles says technology has had 30 years, so it is going nowhere. But compares history of technology behind industrial revolution. The enabling technology is present but not functioning well. The internet didn't work yet for dot com. Not better, faster, cheaper, but easier, more convenient, more reliable. Doesn't work until it is invisible, i.e. is absorbed into our experience. E.g. cell phone ad "Can you hear me now?"
How long on internet before attention wanders when something takes too long? 340ms
The golden age comes when the technology works invisibly and organizations use unconsciously.
We are moving into an era where internet works, optical fiber, developing 1001 use technologies make it a seamless experience. 1929 the car not in heavy use. 1950 road, brakes, ignition, tires, gasoline stations, windshield wipers.
We are entering an era of 1001 small technologies make things work together. Not about the big base technologies. The glamor never comes back. Build out is not about investing, but the hard work of production. Business will slowly adapt. Railways involved firms moving away from water to rail heads. Business is currently architected with central factories and will have to have a new architecture and organization. Problem is not technological, but political.
Railway to New Mexico was by land grants. Eisenhower interstate highway system actually started with people talking about it in 1924, Roosevelt trying, the war. Who will pay and profit? Eisenhower knocked heads.
Broadband. Intel can't agree with Hollywood. Piracy. Need Feds to say what we really need is a broadband infrastructure. But 9/11, Iraq have distracted attention.
First paved road in NM in 1932 after the crash.
Systems that are not just always on and talking to each other, but systems that are intelligent. Things that talk to things. New intelligent behavior will emerge bottom up. Example: The metering lights on California freeway. Used to be manually adjusted. Now probably working together. What is the emergent traffic behavior that we want to see?
In 2015: I walk into my study. Wall is an interface. I say my name. Computer says "Goodmorning, you're really not looking well. Lie down on the table while I take a look at you. You have acute appendicitis. Let me operate."
Summary: We are right on track. The build out has yet to come characterized by positive feedback cycle. Hard work, less glamor. No new investment manias. Inventiveness will make the base technologies work seamlessly. Will take 2, 5, 10, 15 years. Business rearchitecting will be slow. Need federal action.
Dangerous period because of distraction by pursuing terrorists.
Will see desirable behavior emerge.
Last word to Peter Drucker: you were wrong.
Question: are there counter examples from history? Answer 3/18/02 article. There have been crashes (Tulip bubble) that were not part of revolutions. Perez insists that always a mania, crash and buildup, but Arthur is not convince that steel had a huge mania and crash. Why? No race for space. 1845 Britain was running out of room. Once each dot com niche was taken, it would be too late. But not with steel.
Taylor looks at radio in the 1920s. Who in 1924 led army commision for highway 80? Ike.
END